Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM

K

Kalshi

10 markets

Market Probability Details

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

56%

Vol: $36,934 Ends: Jan 1, 2031 View on Kalshi

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

47%

Vol: $27,925 Ends: Jan 1, 2035 View on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

41%

Vol: $23,448 Ends: Jan 1, 2031 View on Kalshi

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

33%

Vol: $39,294 Ends: Jan 1, 2030 View on Kalshi

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

28%

Vol: $4,819 Ends: Jan 1, 2050 View on Kalshi

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

18%

Vol: $6,330 Ends: Jan 1, 2050 View on Kalshi

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

9%

Vol: $37,119 Ends: Aug 1, 2099 View on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

6%

Vol: $2,024 Ends: Jan 1, 2031 View on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

4%

Vol: $2,976 Ends: Jan 1, 2031 View on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

4%

Vol: $2,109 Ends: Jan 1, 2031 View on Kalshi

P

Polymarket

1 market

Market Probability Details

Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?

63%

Vol: $1,079,900.523 Ends: Jan 1, 2027 View on Polymarket

M

Metaculus

6 markets

Market Probability Details

Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026? US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?

71%

10 forecasters Ends: Dec 25, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will the first deliveries of the flying car ASKA A5 happen before 2028? Will flying car ASKA A5 launch happen before 2028?

50%

5 forecasters Ends: Dec 31, 2027 View on Metaculus

Will the European Space Agency launch the PLATO spacecraft before 2027? ESA officially launches PLATO before 2027?

49%

5 forecasters Ends: Dec 31, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026? Starship orbital refueling in 2026?

42%

726 forecasters Ends: Dec 31, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land? Humans sent to Mars before 2036?

25%

28 forecasters Ends: Jan 1, 2036 View on Metaculus

Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030? NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?

1%

32 forecasters Ends: Dec 31, 2029 View on Metaculus