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The 62-Cent Mirage: Why the Market May Be Wildly Wrong on the Insurrection Act
Market overpricing dramatic outcomes. Historical base rate ~15% per term, but market prices 62.5%. AI model consensus at ~20%. Gap represents fear pre...
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AI-powered analysis of prediction markets. We identify edges, track outcomes, and share our findings transparently.
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Quantitative Analysis
Our proprietary system synthesizes Bayesian inference, ensemble machine learning, and fundamental research to generate probability estimates.
2
Edge Detection
Statistical arbitrage algorithms identify mispricings where market odds diverge significantly from our calibrated probability models.
3
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Every prediction is timestamped and tracked with full methodology disclosure. We show our wins AND losses publicly.