Health & Pandemic
Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM
Avg Probability 12%
Max Spread 0%
Platforms 2
Markets 22
Kalshi
19 markets Market Probability
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
38%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
32%
Who will the next Pope be?
13%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
13%
Who will the next Pope be?
10%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
10%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
10%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
10%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
9%
Who will the next Pope be?
7%
Who will the next Pope be?
7%
Who will the next Pope be?
6%
Who will the next Pope be?
5%
Who will the next Pope be?
4%
Who will the next Pope be?
4%
Who will the next Pope be?
4%
Who will the next Pope be?
3%
Who will the next Pope be?
3%
Who will the next Pope be?
3%
Metaculus
3 markets Market Probability
Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?"?
35%
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026? Will WHO declare a PHEIC in 2026?
33%
Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026? FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?
18%