AI & Technology
Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM
Avg Probability 33%
Max Spread 9%
Platforms 3
Markets 51
Cross-Platform Comparisons
Same or similar questions found on multiple platforms — click to expand
Kalshi
5 markets Market Probability
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
79%
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
35%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
28%
Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
13%
Will Steve Ballmer be the world's first trillionaire?
1%
Polymarket
5 markets Market Probability
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?
19%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
0%
Metaculus
20 markets Market Probability
Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026? CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?
79%
Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026? Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?
68%
Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026? CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?
60%
Will META's market close price on 2026-01-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-25? META's close price rises?
59%
Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026? AI 3 hour time horizon METR 80%?
55%
Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?"?
45%
Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Artemis II success in 2026?"?
45%
Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?"?
45%
Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?"?
42%
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "AI 3 hour time horizon METR 80%?"?
41%
Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?"?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2026-01-26 for the Metaculus question "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?"?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 61.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question "Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for ""?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question "Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?"?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-04 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?"?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2026-01-28 for the Metaculus question "Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?"?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?"?
38%
Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?"?
38%
Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?"?
37%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026? Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?
36%